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One step from the top

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Erling Haaland has been scoring goals left, right and centre this season. After breaking Mohamed Salah’s record of scoring the most goals in a season, the Norwegian went one step further. Haaland scored his 35th goal against West Ham United to break Alan Shearer’s record of 34 goals in a single Premier League season which came in a 42-game season.

Meanwhile, Harry Kane is having yet another fantastic season and is the second-most top scorer with 26 goals to his name. And with his latest strike, he became the second-highest scorer in Premier League history by overtaking Wayne Rooney.

However, Kane needs to score another 51 goals if he wants to break Shearer’s record, which has stood tall for 17 years now. So, can the Tottenham man break the record? We analyse.

Harry Kane’s season-by-season goal records 

Harry Kane’s debut came in the 2013-14 season when he scored three goals, but the following season, he has been one of the best strikers in England and across Europe. In the 2014-15 season, Kane scored 21 goals to establish himself as the new star of the Premier League.

The following season he went a level up as he scored 25 goals and won the Premier League Golden Boot for the first time. The next season followed the same trajectory as he scored 29 goals. In 2017-18, Kane made his intentions clear that he wanted to go and break the all-time Premier League goal-scoring record.

For this, Kane needed to score 32 goals and have his best season. However, only one of the things came true at the end of the season. While Kane did have his best season, he could only score 30 goals finishing second behind Mohamed Salah, who went and smashed the record by scoring 32 goals.

His next two seasons were dismal by his usual high standards, as Kane scored 17 and 18 goals in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, respectively. However, he roared back to form the following season by scoring 23 goals to win his third Premier League Golden Boot.

In the last two seasons, he has experienced contrasting form, scoring 17 goals in the 2021-22 season and is currently on 26 goals this season.

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Can Harry Kane break Alan Shearer’s record 

To analyse this argument, we must look at injuries, form and whether he plays in the Premier League for at least the next three seasons. So let’s start with the last argument first. It has been no secret that over the years that Kane has wanted to leave the club in search of greener pastures or, should we sway, winning more silverware.

Manchester City even moved heaven and earth in the 2021 summer transfer window to sign him offering as much as £100 million for the striker. Tottenham, though were unmoved and refused to sell. City were so confident about getting their man that they did not go for any other player. They learnt their lesson well going for Erling Haaland the very next season.

And if he doesn’t stay at Tottenham, there is only one Premier League club in Manchester United who is looking for a striker and has the financial capacity to buy him.

So let’s take the first scenario where Kane stays at Tottenham. Since the 2014-15 season, Kane has missed a majority of the season on three occasions; 2016-17 (73 days), 2018-19 a(91 days), and 2019-20 (90 days).

Even in such precarious situations, his worst tally in these three seasons was 17. So even if injuries curtail his next three seasons, he could score more than 50 goals in the next three seasons, enough to take him past Shearer considering there are four games left in the current season. If he stays fit, he could go past Shearer’s record in just two seasons, given his imperious record. We must also remember that Kane is only 29 years and could easily perform at the top level for at least three seasons.

And these goal-scoring feats have come at a club that has seen the most turbulent times. So, if he does go to Manchester United, his chance of breaking the record will only improve, given the availability of players such as Bruno Fernandes and Jadon Sancho.

Saumy Deepak Tripathi
A Bayern Munich fan who is deeply in love with football statistics. Has a soft spot for goalkeepers! (well only he knows why). You’ll find him vibing on 70’s classic songs and spends an abnormal amount of time cooking.

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