It all comes down to this. After managerial hirings and firings, changed tactics and gambles on players, Premier League’s bottom three (two, excluding already relegated Southampton) will be decided on the last matchday. Thus, the Premier League relegation permutation and combinations are in full force among the fans of the threatened teams- Everton, Leicester City, and Leeds United.
The financial security that comes with being in the Premier League means that relegation could spell doom for these.
With the last matchday inching closer, here’s what each team needs to do, and hope for, in order to avoid the ignominy of going down-
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Everton- 33 points (vs Bournemouth at home)
Of all the threatened teams, Everton have the most straightforward scenario. They have their destiny in their own hands. Everton are one of the six Premier League teams who have never been relegated.
If they win– Facing Bournemouth at home on the last matchday, the equation is simple. Win against Bournemouth and safety is secured. A win will get them to 36 points, while Leicester and Leeds can get to 34 points at most.
In they draw– In case of a draw, however, Everton will look nervously over their shoulder. 34 points can be matched by both Leicester and Leeds. Although Leeds’ inferior goal difference (-27 to Everton’s -24) means Leeds are odds-on favourites to go down. However, Leicester can then doom Everton to 18th place with a win due to their superior goal difference of -18.
If they lose- This is the nightmare scenario for the Toffees but they can still survive with a loss, granted both Leicester and Leeds drop points as well. The doomsday scene will be if Everton lose, and both Leicester and Leeds win. This would put Everton in 19th place with 33 points. Even if one of these two wins, Everton will end up 18th.
Leicester City- 31 points (vs West Ham at home)
Not many picked the Foxes as a team to get relegated but their campaign has gone completely off the rails. Despite the presence of some quality personnel in the team, it hasn’t clicked for them. Brendan Rodgers was fired and in his place, Dean Smith hasn’t been able to engineer a turnaround. Facing West Ham United on the last matchday, anything less than a win will doom Leicester. Even after a win, their destiny is not in their hands.
If they win- A win would ensure Leicester finishing over Leeds United, given their superior goal difference. However, they would then need Bournemouth to take points off of Everton. Even if Everton draw against Bournemouth, Leicester will overtake them due to their GD, with both clubs finishing on 34 points.
If they draw- The equation is simple for Leicester. Anything less than a win against West Ham will see them go down. In this case, Everton won’t even need to win to be safe.
If they lose- Same scenario if they lose as it was in case of a draw. Relegation confirmed in they lose.
Leeds United- 31 points (vs Tottenham at home)
Sam Allardyce’s bonus for saving Leeds from relegation is under the biggest threat of all three teams. Leeds are worst-placed due to their bad goal difference. Sam Allardyce’s relegation record could have another entry in it after his West Brom side went down in 2020/21 season.
Leeds United’s coaching staff has done an appreciable job since being parachuted in to save Peacocks from relegation but their tough fixture list always made it unlikely.
If they win- Even a win wouldn’t sort Leeds’ worries. They would then need Leicester and Everton to lose. Not even an Everton draw would do them any favours, as it would leave both teams at 34 points and Everton’s GD is -24 to Leeds’ -27. Leeds would need to win by a margin of four goals to overturn it.
If they lose/draw- Relegation is confirmed if they drop points.